Avai 1–1 Atletico Paranaense: Result & Stats

Avai

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Paranaense

William Pottker 22'

D. Terans 48'

9/11/2022

Serie A · Round 26Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Avai43%

×Draw27%

Atletico Paranaense30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.07

Avai

1.34

Atletico Paranaense

1.07

Avai creates 25% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 251 away

1.25

creates per match

0.86

1.28

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Avai

1.25

Atletico Paranaense

0.86

allows per match

Avai

1.28

Atletico Paranaense

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avai+0.00on par

Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Avai or draw

70%

Avai or Atletico Paranaense

73%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

57%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

20%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

74%

Avai 2+ goals

39%

Avai 3+ goals

15%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

66%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

59%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 106 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 251 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.25 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Atletico Paranaense attack 0.86 + Avai defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Avai scores more

43%

level

27%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

30%

Avai at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90

William Pottker

Avai · M

8.2

Match Events

22'

William Pottker

28'

Fernandinho

29'

FernandinhoCard reviewed

32'

Vitinho

46'

Pedrinho← Abner

46'

D. Terans← Fernandinho

46'

48'

50'

50'

56'

56'

66'

66'

T. Cuello← Pablo

71'

Matheus Galdezani

74'

Eduardo← Bruno Silva

74'

Thales← Matheus Galdezani

74'

Nathan← Renato

89'

Jean Pyerre

90+7'

Bento

90+5'

Alex Santana

90+2'

Erick← Hugo Moura

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiAtletico

Overview

69%Possession31%

15Total Shots9

7Corners2

17Fouls20

Shots

15Total Shots9

3On Target2

4Off Target5

8Blocked2

10Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

547Total Passes250

466Accurate Passes170

85%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls20

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Avai vs Atletico Paranaense

Avai and Atletico Paranaense drew 1-1 in Serie A on September 11, 2022.

Goals: William Pottker (22'), D. Terans (48').

Avai controlled possession (69%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.

Avai vs Atletico Paranaense — Serie A 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Avai vs Atletico Paranaense