Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Avai: Result & Stats

Atletico Paranaense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Avai

K. Viveros 51' (pen)

Joao Vitor 22'

10/15/2025

Serie B · Round 32Ligga Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Atletico Paranaense49%

×Draw27%

Avai24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico ParanaenseExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.92

Atletico Paranaense

1.45

Avai

0.92

Atletico Paranaense creates 58% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 22 away

1.59

creates per match

1.02

0.81

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Atletico Paranaense

1.59

Avai

1.02

allows per match

Atletico Paranaense

0.81

Avai

1.31

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Paranaense-0.37scores less

Avai-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Paranaense ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Paranaense or draw

76%

Atletico Paranaense or Avai

73%

Draw or Avai

51%

Winning margin

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

25%

Avai wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

77%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

42%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

18%

Avai 1+ goals

60%

Avai 2+ goals

23%

Avai 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

67%

Avai (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.81 · 9 matches

Avai away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.59 + Avai defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Avai attack 1.02 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico Paranaense scores more

49%

level

27%

Avai scores more

24%

Atletico Paranaense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

Cesar Augusto

Avai · G

8.7

Match Events

12'

Douglas Silva

22'

Joao Vitor↳ Marquinhos Gabriel

46'

S. Mendoza← Luiz Fernando

46'

Julimar← J. F. Aguirre Tabares

50'

Eduardo Brock

51'

K. ViverosPenalty

62'

Railan← Marcos Vinicius

62'

Gaspar← DG

73'

Joao Cruz← Leozinho

74'

César

76'

Hygor← JP

86'

Thayllon← Cleber

90+6'

Steven Mendoza

90+6'

Carlos Teran

90+6'

César

90'

Alan Kardec← Dudu Kogitzki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoAvai

Overview

55%Possession45%

21Total Shots12

2.23Expected Goals (xG)0.60

10Corners2

21Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots12

9On Target5

8Off Target5

4Blocked2

12Inside Box4

9Outside Box8

Passing

55%Possession45%

474Total Passes400

403Accurate Passes315

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

21Fouls12

0Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards1

1Offsides5