Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atletico Paranaense vs Avai — Serie A 2010

Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Avai
Avai
Jonathan 14'
9/15/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 19Arena da Baixada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Atletico Paranaense59%
×Draw24%
Avai17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Paranaense
1.69
Avai
0.79

Atletico Paranaense creates 114% more chances

Season form · 249 home / 102 away

creates per match

Atletico Paranaense
1.49
Avai
0.74

allows per match

Atletico Paranaense
0.85
Avai
1.89

finishing

Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par
Avai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Paranaense ↓

Avai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Paranaense or draw
83%
Atletico Paranaense or Avai
76%
Draw or Avai
41%

Winning margin

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+
33%
Avai wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals
82%
Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals
50%
Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals
24%
Avai 1+ goals
55%
Avai 2+ goals
19%
Avai 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)
77%
Avai (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.85 · 249 matches

Avai away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.49 + Avai defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Avai attack 0.74 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Atletico Paranaense scores more
59%
level
24%
Avai scores more
17%

Atletico Paranaense at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Jonathan↳ Matheus Barbosa
28'
Matheus Rossetto
46'
Léo← Igor
56'
J. Mosquera← Lourenço
66'
Vitinho← Everton Felipe
67'
Pedrinho← B. Romero
68'
Julinho← Jonathan
83'
T. Andrade← L. González

Shots

Atletico: 8Avai: 38Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoAvai
Overview
8Total Shots3
12Corners5
5Fouls3
Shots
8Total Shots3
4On Target1
4Off Target2
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
5Fouls3
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Atletico Paranaense vs Avai

Avai beat Atletico Paranaense 1-0 in Serie A on September 15, 2019.

Goals: Jonathan (14').

The match was played at Arena da Baixada in Curitiba.