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Atlas vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

Atlas
Atlas
Preview
23:00
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
11/7/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Jalisco
Big match
38%
Atlas
model favours
38%25%37%

CF Pachuca score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Atlas38%
×Draw25%
CF Pachuca37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.45
CF Pachuca
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.43
CF Pachuca
1.34

allows per match

Atlas
1.48
CF Pachuca
1.47

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
63%
Atlas or CF Pachuca
75%
Draw or CF Pachuca
62%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
18%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
77%
Atlas 2+ goals
42%
Atlas 3+ goals
18%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
76%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
41%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
51%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.43 + CF Pachuca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.45

CF Pachuca attack 1.34 + Atlas defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlas scores more
38%
level
25%
CF Pachuca scores more
37%

Atlas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Atlas win just 11% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Atlas
Balanced
CF Pachuca
Defensively solid
46%Possession50%
79%Pass accuracy82%
10.6ShotsBiggest gap14.6
0.86xG1.08
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AtlasCF Pachuca

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Atlas
1
Draws
3
CF Pachuca
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 40%
1–30–30–02–03–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Atlas
LDLLL
Pachuca
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlas face CF Pachuca (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with Atlas hosting CF Pachuca. Match starts November 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Atlas host CF Pachuca at Estadio Jalisco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.