Aston Villa 1–4 Leicester: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Leicester

J. Grealish 45+2'

J. Vardy 75', 20'

J. Evans 49'

K. Iheanacho 41'

12/8/2019

Premier League · Round 16Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Aston Villa45%

×Draw23%

Leicester32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.51

Aston Villa

1.83

Leicester

1.51

Aston Villa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 8 away

1.45

creates per match

1.73

1.29

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.45

Leicester

1.73

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.29

Leicester

2.21

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.34scores more

Leicester-0.35scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

68%

Aston Villa or Leicester

77%

Draw or Leicester

55%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

25%

Leicester wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

84%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

54%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

28%

Leicester 1+ goals

78%

Leicester 2+ goals

44%

Leicester 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

59%

Leicester (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 29 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.21 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.45 + Leicester defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.83

Leicester attack 1.73 + Aston Villa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aston Villa scores more

45%

level

23%

Leicester scores more

32%

Aston Villa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Vardy

Leicester · F

8.9

Match Events

13'

Tyrone Mings

20'

J. Vardy↳ K. Iheanacho

23'

36'

38'

41'

45'

45'

45+2'

J. Grealish↳ E. Konsa

49'

J. Evans↳ J. Maddison

50'

Matt Targett

59'

Trézéguet← M. Nakamba

60'

John McGinn

64'

H. Barnes← K. Iheanacho

75'

J. Vardy↳ D. Praet

76'

M. Albrighton← D. Praet

78'

F. Guilbert← M. Targett

80'

J. Justin← B. Chilwell

90'

Jack Grealish

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonLeicester

Overview

40%Possession60%

15Total Shots23

8Corners5

21Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots23

2On Target8

9Off Target8

4Blocked7

11Inside Box21

4Outside Box2

Passing

40%Possession60%

306Total Passes478

234Accurate Passes411

76%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls15

6Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Premier League: Aston Villa 1–4 Leicester

Leicester beat Aston Villa 4-1 in Premier League on December 8, 2019.

Goals: J. Vardy (20', 75'), K. Iheanacho (41'), J. Grealish (45+2'), J. Evans (49').

Leicester controlled possession (60%) and registered 23 shots to 15.

The match was played at Villa Park in Birmingham.

Aston Villa vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Aston Villa 1–4 Leicester