Aston Villa 1–3 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Chelsea

R. James 28' (OG)

Jorginho 90+3' (pen), 34' (pen)

R. Lukaku 56'

12/26/2021

Premier League · Round 19Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Aston Villa40%

×Draw25%

Chelsea35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.35

Aston Villa

1.48

Chelsea

1.35

Aston Villa creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 35 away

1.48

creates per match

1.49

1.22

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.48

Chelsea

1.49

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.22

Chelsea

1.49

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Aston Villa+0.31scores more

Chelsea-0.06on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

65%

Aston Villa or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

60%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

19%

Chelsea wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

77%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

43%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

19%

Chelsea 1+ goals

74%

Chelsea 2+ goals

39%

Chelsea 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

54%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 28 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.48 + Chelsea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chelsea attack 1.49 + Aston Villa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aston Villa scores more

40%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

35%

Aston Villa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Jorginho

Chelsea · M

8.6

Match Events

28'

R. JamesOwn goal

33'

Emiliano Martínez

34'

JorginhoPenalty

46'

R. Lukaku← T. Chalobah

52'

A. Christensen← Thiago Silva

56'

R. Lukaku↳ C. Hudson-Odoi

63'

65'

70'

73'

74'

Carney Chukwuemeka← E. Buendía

76'

A. El Ghazi← M. Sanson

90+2'

Ezri Konsa

90+3'

JorginhoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonChelsea

Overview

42%Possession58%

8Total Shots10

2Corners5

8Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots10

1On Target4

2Off Target3

5Blocked3

5Inside Box9

3Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

446Total Passes609

382Accurate Passes541

86%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2