Argentinos JRS 0–2 Aldosivi: Result & Stats

Argentinos JRS

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Aldosivi

T. Leiva 89'

J. Giani 10'

3/14/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 10Estadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Argentinos JRS49%

×Draw28%

Aldosivi23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Argentinos JRSExpected goals in this matchAldosivi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.80

Argentinos JRS

1.33

Aldosivi

0.80

Argentinos JRS creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.08

creates per match

0.92

0.68

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Argentinos JRS

1.08

Aldosivi

0.92

allows per match

Argentinos JRS

0.68

Aldosivi

1.59

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Argentinos JRS+0.23scores more

Aldosivi-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentinos JRS ↓

Aldosivi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Argentinos JRS or draw

77%

Argentinos JRS or Aldosivi

72%

Draw or Aldosivi

51%

Winning margin

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+

23%

Aldosivi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals

74%

Argentinos JRS 2+ goals

38%

Argentinos JRS 3+ goals

15%

Aldosivi 1+ goals

55%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

19%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)

69%

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentinos JRS at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.68 · 13 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.59 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentinos JRS attack 1.08 + Aldosivi defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Aldosivi attack 0.92 + Argentinos JRS defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Argentinos JRS scores more

49%

level

28%

Aldosivi scores more

23%

Argentinos JRS at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

J. Giani

Aldosivi · M

8.3

Match Events

8'

Blas Agustín Palavecino

10'

32'

34'

40'

46'

46'

62'

L. Gomez← N. Oroz

62'

R. Bentancourt← T. Molina

63'

Y. Cabral← L. Chavez

76'

L. Lazarte← R. Bochi

77'

S. Rodriguez← L. Lozano

77'

T. Leiva← E. Torres

78'

Lucas Lazarte

88'

J. I. Achetoni← A. Palavecino

88'

F. Rami← J. Giani

89'

T. Leiva↳ L. Lazarte

90+5'

Tobías Leiva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArgentinosAldosivi

Overview

69%Possession31%

13Total Shots16

10Corners2

9Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots16

3On Target7

6Off Target6

4Blocked3

11Inside Box8

2Outside Box8

Passing

69%Possession31%

481Total Passes227

399Accurate Passes153

83%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls17

0Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2