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Argentinos JRS vs Aldosivi — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Argentinos JRS
Argentinos JRS
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aldosivi
Aldosivi
T. Nuss 57'
G. Carabajal 38'
M. Cauteruccio 32' (pen)
6/7/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Argentinos JRS49%
×Draw28%
Aldosivi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentinos JRS
1.33
Aldosivi
0.80

Argentinos JRS creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

Argentinos JRS
1.08
Aldosivi
0.92

allows per match

Argentinos JRS
0.68
Aldosivi
1.59

finishing

Argentinos JRS+0.23scores more
Aldosivi-0.25scores less

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentinos JRS ↓

Aldosivi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Argentinos JRS or draw
77%
Argentinos JRS or Aldosivi
72%
Draw or Aldosivi
51%

Winning margin

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+
23%
Aldosivi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals
74%
Argentinos JRS 2+ goals
38%
Argentinos JRS 3+ goals
15%
Aldosivi 1+ goals
55%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
19%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)
69%
Aldosivi (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentinos JRS at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.68 · 13 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.59 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentinos JRS attack 1.08 + Aldosivi defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Aldosivi attack 0.92 + Argentinos JRS defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Argentinos JRS scores more
49%
level
28%
Aldosivi scores more
23%

Argentinos JRS at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
G. CarabajalArgentinos JRSArgentinos JRS · F
7.7

Match Events

32'
L. Sánchez← K. Mac Allister
32'
M. CauteruccioPenalty
38'
G. Carabajal
45+1'
Emanuel Iñíguez
55'
Mario López
57'
T. Nuss↳ M. Galarza
58'
M. Coronel← F. Moyano
62'
Nicolás Valentini
75'
F. De La Vega← U. Ramírez
80'
Thiago Nuss
84'
S. Silva← M. Pisano
90+1'
L. Ovando← T. Nuss
90+1'
L. Gómez← G. Carabajal

Possession

50%Argentinos

Shots

12Argentinos

Pass accuracy

51%Argentinos

Statistics

ArgentinosAldosivi
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots15
3Corners6
10Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots15
3On Target4
7Off Target8
2Blocked3
7Inside Box8
5Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
332Total Passes322
213Accurate Passes197
64%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Argentinos JRS vs Aldosivi

Argentinos JRS beat Aldosivi 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on June 7, 2022.

Goals: M. Cauteruccio (32' pen), G. Carabajal (38'), T. Nuss (57').

Argentinos JRS controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Diego Armando Maradona in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.