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Aldosivi vs Argentinos JRS — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Aldosivi
Aldosivi
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Argentinos JRS
Argentinos JRS
H. Lopez 80'
G. Cerato 76' (OG)
9/27/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 10Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Aldosivi36%
×Draw32%
Argentinos JRS32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aldosivi
0.98
Argentinos JRS
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Aldosivi
0.85
Argentinos JRS
1.00

allows per match

Aldosivi
0.83
Argentinos JRS
1.11

finishing

Aldosivi-0.02on par
Argentinos JRS-0.58scores less

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Argentinos JRS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw
68%
Aldosivi or Argentinos JRS
68%
Draw or Argentinos JRS
64%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+
13%
Argentinos JRS wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals
62%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
26%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
8%
Argentinos JRS 1+ goals
60%
Argentinos JRS 2+ goals
23%
Argentinos JRS 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)
52%
Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Argentinos JRS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 0.85 + Argentinos JRS defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Argentinos JRS attack 1.00 + Aldosivi defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Aldosivi scores more
36%
level
32%
Argentinos JRS scores more
32%

Aldosivi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

50
D. RodriguezArgentinos JRSArgentinos JRS · G
8.6

Match Events

44'
Federico Gino
48'
Alan Lescano
49'
Roberto Bochi
58'
E. Rodriguez← F. De La Vega
63'
L. Giaccone← E. Viveros
63'
D. Porcel← N. Oroz
67'
Fernando Román
72'
M. Esponda← F. Gino
72'
E. Preciado← T. Serrago
76'
G. CeratoOwn goal
80'
H. Lopez↳ D. Porcel
81'
L. Gomez← A. Lescano
82'
R. D. Riquelme← T. Molina
83'
R. Gonzalez← A. Palavecino
83'
T. Cervera← J. Giani
86'
J. Gho← H. Lopez
89'
Rodrigo GonzalezCard upgrade
90+6'
Yonatan Cabral
90'
Rodrigo Gonzalez
90+2'
Román Riquelme

Possession

30%Aldosivi

Shots

8Aldosivi

Pass accuracy

42%Aldosivi

Statistics

AldosiviArgentinos
Overview
30%Possession70%
8Total Shots14
0.31Expected Goals (xG)1.17
5Corners5
14Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots14
4On Target4
3Off Target6
1Blocked4
4Inside Box7
4Outside Box7
Passing
30%Possession70%
188Total Passes469
110Accurate Passes391
59%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
0.80Goals Prevented0.80
Discipline
14Fouls10
4Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Aldosivi 0–2 Argentinos JRS

Argentinos JRS beat Aldosivi 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 27, 2025.

Goals: G. Cerato (76' o.g.), H. Lopez (80').

Argentinos JRS controlled possession (70%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata.