Aldosivi 1–2 Argentinos JRS: Result & Stats

Aldosivi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Argentinos JRS

G. Cerato 45'

T. Molina 84' (pen)

A. Lescano 78'

8/1/2025

Copa Argentina · Round of 16Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aldosivi26%

×Draw24%

Argentinos JRS50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AldosiviExpected goals in this matchArgentinos JRS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.73

Aldosivi

1.19

Argentinos JRS

1.73

Argentinos JRS creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.14

creates per match

1.75

1.71

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Aldosivi

1.14

Argentinos JRS

1.75

allows per match

Aldosivi

1.71

Argentinos JRS

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aldosivi+0.00on par

Argentinos JRS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Argentinos JRS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw

50%

Aldosivi or Argentinos JRS

76%

Draw or Argentinos JRS

74%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+

11%

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals

70%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

33%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

12%

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals

82%

Argentinos JRS 2+ goals

52%

Argentinos JRS 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

35%

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Argentinos JRS away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 1.14 + Argentinos JRS defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Argentinos JRS attack 1.75 + Aldosivi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aldosivi scores more

26%

level

24%

Argentinos JRS scores more

50%

Argentinos JRS at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

S. Laquidain

38'

E. Viveros

45'

G. Cerato↳ T. Cervera

46'

C. Bravo← S. Prieto

46'

M. Gimenez← E. Viveros

55'

56'

60'

60'

65'

G. Mottes← T. Serrago

74'

E. Preciado← J. Giani

74'

M. Garcia← T. Cervera

76'

I. Sosa← E. Godoy

78'

A. Lescano↳ T. Molina

84'

T. MolinaPenalty

85'

T. Molina

86'

N. Guzman← S. Laquidain

86'

E. Rodriguez← A. Palavecino

Aldosivi

Argentinos

50

Rodriguez

22

Lozano

20

▼

Prieto

11

▼

Oroz

16

Alvarez

4

▼

Godoy

10

⚽

Lescano

24

Fattori

27

⚽A

Molina

23

▼

Lopez

29

▼

1

4

3

27

55

15

▼

Laquidain

11

▼

Palavecin

44

⚽

Cerato

33

A

▼

Cervera

40

▼

Giani

8

▼

Serrago

Manager: Guillermo Martín Farré

65'▲G. Mottes←▼T. Serrago

74'▲E. Preciado←▼J. Giani

74'▲M. Garcia←▼T. Cervera

86'▲N. Guzman←▼S. Laquidain

86'▲E. Rodriguez←▼A. Palavecino

Aldosivi substitutes

17Moyano2Kummer6Mottes7Guzman9Rodriguez10Garcia18Preciado19Rami22Vega29Esponda30Falasco51Garcia

Manager: Nicolás Ignacio Diez Parajón

46'▲C. Bravo←▼S. Prieto

46'▲M. Gimenez←▼E. Viveros

60'▲L. Giaccone←▼N. Oroz

60'▲D. Porcel←▼H. Lopez

76'▲I. Sosa←▼E. Godoy

Argentinos JRS substitutes

12Payer2Palacio14Coronel26Bravo5Cardozo25Gomez28Gho7Giaccone18Sosa32Ryouga34Gimenez47Porcel

Match Recap: Aldosivi vs Argentinos JRS

Argentinos JRS beat Aldosivi 2-1 in Copa Argentina on August 1, 2025.

Goals: G. Cerato (45'), A. Lescano (78'), T. Molina (84' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello in Gobernador Julio A. Costa.

Aldosivi vs Argentinos JRS — Copa Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Aldosivi vs Argentinos JRS