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Anorthosis vs Pafos — 1. Division 2019

Anorthosis
Anorthosis
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Pafos
Pafos
3/10/20241. Division1. Division · Championship Round - 3Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Anorthosis39%
×Draw27%
Pafos34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anorthosis
1.31
Pafos
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 120 away

creates per match

Anorthosis
1.58
Pafos
1.32

allows per match

Anorthosis
1.12
Pafos
1.03

finishing

Anorthosis+0.00on par
Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anorthosis ↓

Pafos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Anorthosis or draw
66%
Anorthosis or Pafos
73%
Draw or Pafos
61%

Winning margin

Anorthosis wins by 2+
17%
Pafos wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Anorthosis 1+ goals
73%
Anorthosis 2+ goals
38%
Anorthosis 3+ goals
14%
Pafos 1+ goals
70%
Pafos 2+ goals
34%
Pafos 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Anorthosis (draw refunded)
53%
Pafos (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anorthosis at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 118 matches

Pafos away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.03 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anorthosis attack 1.58 + Pafos defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.31

Pafos attack 1.32 + Anorthosis defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Anorthosis scores more
39%
level
27%
Pafos scores more
34%

Anorthosis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Anorthosis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anorthosis vs Pafos

Pafos beat Anorthosis 3-2 in 1. Division on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos in Larnaca.