Ankaragücü 1–1 Alanyaspor: Result & Stats

Ankaragücü

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Alanyaspor

T. Chatzigiovanis 10'

O. Aydın 90+5' (pen)

5/3/2024

League #203 · Round 35Eryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ankaragücü39%

×Draw28%

Alanyaspor33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnkaragücüExpected goals in this matchAlanyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.10

Ankaragücü

1.21

Alanyaspor

1.10

Ankaragücü creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.13

creates per match

1.07

1.13

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Ankaragücü

1.13

Alanyaspor

1.07

allows per match

Ankaragücü

1.13

Alanyaspor

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Alanyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaragücü ↓

Alanyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ankaragücü or draw

67%

Ankaragücü or Alanyaspor

72%

Draw or Alanyaspor

61%

Winning margin

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

17%

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

70%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

34%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

12%

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

67%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

30%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

54%

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaragücü at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaragücü attack 1.13 + Alanyaspor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Alanyaspor attack 1.07 + Ankaragücü defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ankaragücü scores more

39%

level

28%

Alanyaspor scores more

33%

Ankaragücü at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ankaragücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Flips

Ankaragücü · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

T. Chatzigiovanis↳ A. Flips

11'

61'

61'

62'

63'

Hwang Ui-Jo← Koka

63'

Loide Augusto← Y. Özdemir

68'

Stelios Kitsiou

68'

Garry Rodrigues← T. Chatzigiovanis

73'

N. Janvier← E. Karaca

80'

T. Ciğerci← E. Bekiroğlu

80'

R. Cephas← C. Bassogog

87'

87'

90+3'

90+5'

90+5'

O. AydınPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnkaragücüAlanyaspor

Overview

37%Possession63%

12Total Shots15

0.91Expected Goals (xG)2.51

5Corners2

12Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots15

5On Target6

2Off Target6

5Blocked3

6Inside Box11

6Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

308Total Passes535

242Accurate Passes462

79%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor

Ankaragücü and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in League #203 on May 3, 2024.

Goals: T. Chatzigiovanis (10'), O. Aydın (90+5' pen).

Alanyaspor controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Eryaman Stadyumu in Ankara.

Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Ankaragücü vs Alanyaspor