Alanyaspor 2–1 Ankaragücü: Result & Stats

Alanyaspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ankaragücü

E. Bekiroğlu 87'

Koka 65'

Y. Güreler 69'

9/9/2022

League #203 · Round 6Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Alanyaspor54%

×Draw24%

Ankaragücü21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlanyasporExpected goals in this matchAnkaragücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.96

Alanyaspor

1.69

Ankaragücü

0.96

Alanyaspor creates 76% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.27

creates per match

1.00

0.91

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Alanyaspor

1.27

Ankaragücü

1.00

allows per match

Alanyaspor

0.91

Ankaragücü

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.00on par

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Ankaragücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw

79%

Alanyaspor or Ankaragücü

76%

Draw or Ankaragücü

46%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

30%

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

82%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

50%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

24%

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

62%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

25%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

72%

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 1.27 + Ankaragücü defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ankaragücü attack 1.00 + Alanyaspor defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alanyaspor scores more

54%

level

24%

Ankaragücü scores more

21%

Alanyaspor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

F. Bayır

Alanyaspor · D

7.5

Match Events

14'

49'

53'

61'

61'

62'

T. Chatzigiovanis← G. Ariyibi

62'

E. Kılınç← G. Beridze

65'

Koka↳ E. Karaca

69'

Y. Güreler↳ T. Ciğerci

71'

G. Zahid← Pedrinho

81'

A. Lusamba← I. Doumbia

82'

Ivan Cavaleiro← E. Karaca

83'

L. Diack← T. Antalyalı

87'

E. Bekiroğlu↳ Ivan Cavaleiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlanyasporAnkaragücü

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots12

4Corners3

17Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots12

6On Target4

3Off Target5

2Blocked3

9Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

530Total Passes366

455Accurate Passes309

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides3