Alanyaspor 1–1 Ankaragücü: Result & Stats

Alanyaspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ankaragücü

J. Balkovec 48'

U. Radaković 68'

1/9/2024

League #203 · Round 16Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Alanyaspor52%

×Draw25%

Ankaragücü23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlanyasporExpected goals in this matchAnkaragücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.96

Alanyaspor

1.57

Ankaragücü

0.96

Alanyaspor creates 64% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

1.27

creates per match

1.00

0.91

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Alanyaspor

1.27

Ankaragücü

1.00

allows per match

Alanyaspor

0.91

Ankaragücü

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.00on par

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Ankaragücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw

77%

Alanyaspor or Ankaragücü

75%

Draw or Ankaragücü

48%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

27%

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

79%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

46%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

21%

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

62%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

25%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

69%

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 1.27 + Ankaragücü defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ankaragücü attack 1.00 + Alanyaspor defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alanyaspor scores more

52%

level

25%

Ankaragücü scores more

23%

Alanyaspor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

U. Radaković

Ankaragücü · D

7.7

Match Events

-5'

Efecan Karaca

29'

S. Córdova← E. Karaca

31'

Matěj Hanousek

42'

Efkan BekiroğluCard upgrade

43'

Efkan Bekiroğlu

46'

A. Çankaya← F. Macheda

48'

J. Balkovec↳ F. Aliti

59'

61'

61'

65'

66'

R. Bajić← M. Hanousek

68'

U. Radaković↳ Pedrinho

75'

Carlos Eduardo← N. Janvier

75'

F. Bayır← J. Balkovec

86'

M. Çetin← O. Moruțan

90+2'

F. Aksoy← F. Hadergjonaj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlanyasporAnkaragücü

Overview

62%Possession38%

7Total Shots11

0.65Expected Goals (xG)0.34

3Corners3

9Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots11

2On Target3

2Off Target5

3Blocked3

2Inside Box3

5Outside Box8

Passing

62%Possession38%

608Total Passes377

502Accurate Passes276

83%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

1Offsides2