Ankaragücü 2–0 Alanyaspor: Result & Stats

Ankaragücü

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alanyaspor

Milson 76'

A. Sowe 18'

3/12/2023

League #203 · Round 25Eryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ankaragücü39%

×Draw28%

Alanyaspor33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnkaragücüExpected goals in this matchAlanyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.10

Ankaragücü

1.21

Alanyaspor

1.10

Ankaragücü creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.13

creates per match

1.07

1.13

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Ankaragücü

1.13

Alanyaspor

1.07

allows per match

Ankaragücü

1.13

Alanyaspor

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Alanyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaragücü ↓

Alanyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ankaragücü or draw

67%

Ankaragücü or Alanyaspor

72%

Draw or Alanyaspor

61%

Winning margin

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

17%

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

70%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

34%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

12%

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

67%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

30%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

54%

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaragücü at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaragücü attack 1.13 + Alanyaspor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Alanyaspor attack 1.07 + Ankaragücü defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ankaragücü scores more

39%

level

28%

Alanyaspor scores more

33%

Ankaragücü at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ankaragücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

G. Zahid

Ankaragücü · M

7.9

Match Events

1'

Yusuf Ozdemir

9'

Milson

18'

A. Sowe↳ G. Zahid

40'

Emre Kılınç

42'

Ahmed Hassan

45+2'

Candeias← F. Aksoy

46'

E. Koulouris← E. Bekiroğlu

63'

G. Beridze← E. Kılınç

68'

Wilson Eduardo← Koka

70'

A. Đokanović← T. Antalyalı

76'

Milson

81'

O. Aydın← E. Karaca

82'

J. Balkovec← Y. Özdemir

90'

F. Üzüm← Milson

90+1'

Pedrinho← G. Zahid

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnkaragücüAlanyaspor

Overview

38%Possession62%

18Total Shots10

4Corners2

16Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots10

6On Target1

8Off Target6

4Blocked3

11Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

332Total Passes542

251Accurate Passes457

76%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3