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Alianza Valledupar vs Envigado — Primera A 2018

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Envigado
Envigado
8/10/2023Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 5Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 152+ matches

Alianza Valledupar46%
×Draw28%
Envigado26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.35
Envigado
0.94

Alianza Valledupar creates 44% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 152 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.31
Envigado
0.76

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.13
Envigado
1.39

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Envigado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
74%
Alianza Valledupar or Envigado
72%
Draw or Envigado
54%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
22%
Envigado wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
74%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
39%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
15%
Envigado 1+ goals
61%
Envigado 2+ goals
24%
Envigado 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
64%
Envigado (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 166 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Envigado defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Envigado attack 0.76 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
46%
level
28%
Envigado scores more
26%

Alianza Valledupar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Envigado

Alianza Valledupar beat Envigado 3-1 in Primera A on August 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata in Barrancabermeja.