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Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas — Copa Colombia 2024

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
L. Saldana 59'
L. Perez 45'
J. Figueroa 23'
J. Osorio 1'
6/4/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st Round - 2Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Alianza Valledupar60%
×Draw20%
Águilas Doradas20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
2.23
Águilas Doradas
1.20

Alianza Valledupar creates 86% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
2.25
Águilas Doradas
1.40

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.00
Águilas Doradas
2.20

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
80%
Alianza Valledupar or Águilas Doradas
80%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
40%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
38%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
89%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
65%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
38%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
70%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
34%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
75%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 2.25 + Águilas Doradas defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.23

Águilas Doradas attack 1.40 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
60%
level
20%
Águilas Doradas scores more
20%

Alianza Valledupar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
J. Osorio
23'
J. Figueroa
45'
L. Perez
59'
L. Saldana
Alianza
Águilas
Hubert Antonio Bodhert Barrios
Manager: Hubert Antonio Bodhert Barrios
Matías Jonathan Risueño Luján
Manager: Matías Jonathan Risueño Luján

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas

Alianza Valledupar beat Águilas Doradas 4-0 in Copa Colombia on June 4, 2025.

Goals: J. Osorio (1'), J. Figueroa (23'), L. Perez (45'), L. Saldana (59').

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.