Águilas Doradas 1–0 Alianza Valledupar

Águilas Doradas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Valledupar

J. Rivaldo 70' (pen)

3/27/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 14Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Águilas Doradas50%

×Draw27%

Alianza Valledupar24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.92

Águilas Doradas

1.46

Alianza Valledupar

0.92

Águilas Doradas creates 59% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 126 away

1.37

creates per match

0.79

1.05

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.37

Alianza Valledupar

0.79

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

1.05

Alianza Valledupar

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

76%

Águilas Doradas or Alianza Valledupar

73%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

50%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

25%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

77%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

43%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

18%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

60%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

23%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

68%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 129 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.54 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.37 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.79 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

50%

level

27%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

24%

Águilas Doradas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. Roa

Águilas Doradas · M

8.0

Match Events

64'

J. E. Avalo Trejos← J. Garcia

64'

J. Munoz← J. E. Perez Balcazar

65'

Andrés Ricaurte

69'

Jorge ObregónPenalty confirmed

69'

Jesús Figueroa

70'

J. RivaldoPenalty

73'

N. Lara Vasquez← A. Ricaurte

73'

F. A. Suarez Chalare← J. Obregon

76'

E. Banguero← Y. Rosales

76'

W. Fernandez← F. Pardo

76'

E. W. Meza Mercado← J. Castillo

84'

M. Martinez← F. Cantillo

86'

J. Pineda← J. Roa

87'

A. Higgins← D. Lozano

90+3'

Diego Hernández

90'

Andrés Salazar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ÁguilasAlianza

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots9

2.00Expected Goals (xG)0.61

5Corners5

12Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots9

5On Target1

6Off Target5

1Blocked3

9Inside Box5

3Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

365Total Passes280

290Accurate Passes197

79%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

-0.04Goals Prevented-0.04

Discipline

12Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1