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Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2024

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
4/26/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 16Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Alianza Valledupar42%
×Draw29%
Águilas Doradas29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.21
Águilas Doradas
0.96

Alianza Valledupar creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 48 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.24
Águilas Doradas
0.94

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
0.98
Águilas Doradas
1.19

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
71%
Alianza Valledupar or Águilas Doradas
71%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
58%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
18%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
70%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
34%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
12%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
62%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
25%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
59%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.24 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Águilas Doradas attack 0.94 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
42%
level
29%
Águilas Doradas scores more
29%

Alianza Valledupar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
P. FrancoAlianza ValleduparAlianza Valledupar · D
7.5

Match Events

21'
Nicolás Lara
57'
J. Munoz← M. Gil
57'
M. Martinez← C. Vergara
62'
Kalazan Suárez
62'
Kalazan SuárezCard upgrade
62'
Fredy Salazar
68'
J. Parra← S. A. Aponza Cantonil
70'
Diego Hernández
71'
A. Plata← J. Rivas
71'
J. Caballero← J. Salazar
74'
Johan Parra
79'
Jaen Pineda
80'
Yony Gonzalez← W. Morelo
80'
D. Lozano← J. Pineda
82'
L. Perez← J. Castillo
82'
T. Salazar← H. Mancilla
83'
G. Jimenez← W. Fernandez
86'
José Muñoz

Possession

52%Alianza

Shots

16Alianza

Pass accuracy

51%Alianza

Statistics

AlianzaÁguilas
Overview
52%Possession48%
16Total Shots8
7Corners4
18Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots8
2On Target1
8Off Target4
6Blocked3
6Inside Box2
10Outside Box6
Passing
52%Possession48%
340Total Passes318
272Accurate Passes243
80%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls12
3Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 0–0 Águilas Doradas

Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas drew 0-0 in Primera A on April 26, 2025.

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.