Alianza Valledupar 3–0 Águilas Doradas

Alianza Valledupar

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Águilas Doradas

R. Colpa 90'

M. Martínez 71'

A. Rentería 4'

11/6/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 17Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Alianza Valledupar41%

×Draw28%

Águilas Doradas31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchÁguilas Doradas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.07

Alianza Valledupar

1.26

Águilas Doradas

1.07

Alianza Valledupar creates 18% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 127 away

1.28

creates per match

0.97

1.17

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.28

Águilas Doradas

0.97

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.17

Águilas Doradas

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Águilas Doradas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

69%

Alianza Valledupar or Águilas Doradas

72%

Draw or Águilas Doradas

59%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

18%

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

72%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

36%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

13%

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

66%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

29%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

56%

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 125 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.24 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.28 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.26

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

41%

level

28%

Águilas Doradas scores more

31%

Alianza Valledupar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

L. Saldaña

Alianza Valledupar · D

8.0

Match Events

2'

Luciano Ospina

4'

A. Rentería

8'

Jeisson Quiñónes

51'

Andrés RenteríaGoal cancelled

62'

M. Martínez← J. Pérez

62'

Y. Góez← H. Mancilla

63'

S. Rodríguez← J. Pineda

69'

A. Fontana← T. Salazar

71'

M. Martínez↳ E. Navarro

79'

J. Parra← S. Aponzá

80'

R. Colpa← E. Navarro

85'

D. Lemos← J. Mena

85'

R. Benítez← F. Salazar

87'

Jesús Rivas

88'

J. Valencia← A. Rentería

90+6'

Agustín Fontana

90'

R. Colpa↳ L. Saldaña

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaÁguilas

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots10

5Corners10

9Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots10

4On Target1

3Off Target4

0Blocked5

4Inside Box3

3Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

251Total Passes287

190Accurate Passes223

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides3

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas

Alianza Valledupar beat Águilas Doradas 3-0 in Primera A on November 6, 2024.

Goals: A. Rentería (4'), M. Martínez (71'), R. Colpa (90').

Águilas Doradas controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas