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Alianza Atletico vs ADT — Primera División 2026

Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ADT
ADT
H. Lupu 63'
A. Graneros 35'
5/4/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Alianza Atletico52%
×Draw27%
ADT21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Atletico
1.42
ADT
0.79

Alianza Atletico creates 80% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Alianza Atletico
1.42
ADT
0.74

allows per match

Alianza Atletico
0.84
ADT
1.42

finishing

Alianza Atletico-0.42scores less
ADT+0.34scores more

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

ADT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw
79%
Alianza Atletico or ADT
73%
Draw or ADT
48%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
26%
ADT wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
76%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
41%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
17%
ADT 1+ goals
55%
ADT 2+ goals
19%
ADT 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
71%
ADT (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 15 matches

ADT away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.42 + ADT defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

ADT attack 0.74 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more
52%
level
27%
ADT scores more
21%

Alianza Atletico at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
H. LupuAlianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico · M
7.6

Match Events

6'
Hernan Lupú
12'
Federico Illanes
22'
Carlos Cabello
35'
A. Graneros↳ G. A. Larios Saavedra
46'
R. Castro← G. A. Larios Saavedra
51'
Fernando Bersano
62'
O. Pinto← V. Cedron
63'
H. Lupu
67'
Miguel Agustín Graneros
72'
A. Cossio← L. Olmedo
73'
S. Fernandez← H. Lupu
87'
P. Guzman← E. Perleche
90+2'
R. Diaz← A. Graneros

Possession

30%Alianza

Shots

7Alianza

Pass accuracy

44%Alianza

Statistics

AlianzaADT
Overview
30%Possession70%
7Total Shots11
1Corners9
10Fouls8
Shots
7Total Shots11
2On Target2
4Off Target6
1Blocked3
4Inside Box6
3Outside Box5
Passing
30%Possession70%
174Total Passes401
113Accurate Passes332
65%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls8
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Primera División: Alianza Atletico 2–0 ADT

Alianza Atletico beat ADT 2-0 in Primera División on May 4, 2025.

Goals: A. Graneros (35'), H. Lupu (63').

ADT controlled possession (70%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana.