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ADT vs Alianza Atletico — Primera División 2026

ADT
ADT
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
J. Soto 85'
9/26/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

ADT54%
×Draw25%
Alianza Atletico21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADT
1.58
Alianza Atletico
0.88

ADT creates 80% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

ADT
1.83
Alianza Atletico
0.70

allows per match

ADT
1.06
Alianza Atletico
1.32

finishing

ADT+0.03on par
Alianza Atletico-0.26scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

Alianza Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

ADT or draw
79%
ADT or Alianza Atletico
75%
Draw or Alianza Atletico
46%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+
28%
Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals
79%
ADT 2+ goals
47%
ADT 3+ goals
21%
Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
59%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
22%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)
72%
Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.06 · 14 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.32 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.83 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Alianza Atletico attack 0.70 + ADT defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ADT scores more
54%
level
25%
Alianza Atletico scores more
21%

ADT at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55
G. DulantoADTADT · D
8.7

Match Events

45+1'
Guillermo Larios
56'
L. Olmedo← G. A. Larios Saavedra
62'
S. Fernandez← H. Lupu
62'
R. Diaz← A. Graneros
64'
José Villegas
68'
N. Bazan← G. Barreto
68'
D. Montenegro← C. Cabello
79'
R. Castro← J. Perez
79'
J. J. Quinones Goicochea← H. Benincasa
82'
O. Pinto← J. Narvaez
82'
H. Rengifo← M. Da Luz
84'
Luis Olmedo
85'
J. Soto↳ J. Rojas
86'
Nazareno Bazán
90+1'
A. Gutierrez← J. Rojas

Possession

62%ADT

Shots

21ADT

Pass accuracy

58%ADT

Statistics

ADTAlianza
Overview
62%Possession38%
21Total Shots8
6Corners1
11Fouls12
Shots
21Total Shots8
8On Target2
10Off Target5
3Blocked1
12Inside Box3
9Outside Box5
Passing
62%Possession38%
397Total Passes242
316Accurate Passes141
80%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
4Offsides0

Primera División: ADT 1–0 Alianza Atletico

ADT beat Alianza Atletico 1-0 in Primera División on September 26, 2025.

Goals: J. Soto (85').

ADT controlled possession (62%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma in Tarma.