ADT 0–1 Alianza Atletico: Result & Stats

ADT

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Atletico

H. Benincasa 56' (pen)

9/28/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

ADT54%

×Draw25%

Alianza Atletico21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADTExpected goals in this matchAlianza Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.88

ADT

1.58

Alianza Atletico

0.88

ADT creates 80% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

1.83

creates per match

0.70

1.06

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

ADT

1.83

Alianza Atletico

0.70

allows per match

ADT

1.06

Alianza Atletico

1.32

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

ADT+0.03on par

Alianza Atletico-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

Alianza Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

ADT or draw

79%

ADT or Alianza Atletico

75%

Draw or Alianza Atletico

46%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+

28%

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals

79%

ADT 2+ goals

47%

ADT 3+ goals

21%

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

59%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

22%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)

72%

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.06 · 14 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.32 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.83 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Alianza Atletico attack 0.70 + ADT defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ADT scores more

54%

level

25%

Alianza Atletico scores more

21%

ADT at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Rojas

ADT · F

7.9

Match Events

46'

S. Arias← S. Fernández

53'

Jeremy CanelaPenalty confirmed

56'

J. Gonzáles← J. Falconí

56'

H. BenincasaPenalty

65'

R. Espinosa← J. de la Cruz

65'

E. Tovo← R. Castro

73'

C. Vargas← A. Quiñonez

73'

C. Vásquez← A. Perleche

74'

Renato Espinosa

77'

Edson Aubert

80'

A. Milesi← A. Fernández

82'

Diego Melián

84'

J. Domínguez← J. Soto

85'

A. Hidalgo← E. Aubert

90+1'

Santiago Arias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ADTAlianza

Overview

73%Possession27%

20Total Shots7

9Corners1

10Fouls8

Shots

20Total Shots7

4On Target2

13Off Target4

3Blocked1

10Inside Box3

10Outside Box4

Passing

73%Possession27%

432Total Passes173

354Accurate Passes96

82%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1