Alianza Atletico 1–2 ADT: Result & Stats

Alianza Atletico

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

ADT

S. Rebagliati 84'

V. Cedrón 64'

J. Pósito 45+3' (pen)

4/28/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 13Estadio Campeones del '36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Alianza Atletico52%

×Draw27%

ADT21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchADT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.79

Alianza Atletico

1.42

ADT

0.79

Alianza Atletico creates 80% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.42

creates per match

0.74

0.84

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

1.42

ADT

0.74

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

0.84

ADT

1.42

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Alianza Atletico-0.42scores less

ADT+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

ADT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

79%

Alianza Atletico or ADT

73%

Draw or ADT

48%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

26%

ADT wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

76%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

41%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

17%

ADT 1+ goals

55%

ADT 2+ goals

19%

ADT 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

71%

ADT (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 15 matches

ADT away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.42 + ADT defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

ADT attack 0.74 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

52%

level

27%

ADT scores more

21%

Alianza Atletico at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

P. Díaz

ADT · G

8.0

Match Events

7'

17'

29'

45+2'

45+2'

José VillegasPenalty confirmed

45+11'

Janio PósitoPenalty confirmed

45+3'

J. PósitoPenalty

46'

F. Duclós← A. Milesi

46'

G. Larios← H. Arakaki

46'

S. Arias← H. Lupú

56'

Beto Da Silva

63'

V. Cedrón← J. Gonzáles

63'

A. Quiñonez← J. Pósito

64'

V. Cedrón↳ L. Pérez

71'

S. Rebagliati← R. Castro

72'

Guillermo Larios

73'

Francisco Duclos

84'

S. Rebagliati↳ A. Fernández

88'

E. Aubert← L. da Silva

90+11'

Aldair Perleche

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaADT

Overview

49%Possession51%

16Total Shots10

6Corners3

14Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots10

5On Target4

9Off Target5

2Blocked1

9Inside Box5

7Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

293Total Passes316

201Accurate Passes233

69%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides0