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Águilas Doradas vs Internacional de Bogota — Copa Colombia 2019

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradasadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
8/16/2023Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Águilas Doradas47%
×Draw30%
Internacional de Bogota23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
1.22
Internacional de Bogota
0.75

Águilas Doradas creates 63% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.00
Internacional de Bogota
0.67

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
0.83
Internacional de Bogota
1.44

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par
Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
77%
Águilas Doradas or Internacional de Bogota
70%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
53%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
21%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
70%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
34%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
12%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
53%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
17%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
67%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.00 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.67 + Águilas Doradas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
47%
level
30%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
23%

Águilas Doradas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Águilas Doradas vs Internacional de Bogota

Águilas Doradas beat Internacional de Bogota 2-1 in Copa Colombia on August 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro, Antioquia.