Águilas Doradas 1–2 Deportivo Cali: Result & Stats

Águilas Doradas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Cali

10/24/2021

Primera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Águilas Doradas40%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Cali32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.08

Águilas Doradas

1.25

Deportivo Cali

1.08

Águilas Doradas creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.27

creates per match

1.05

1.11

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.27

Deportivo Cali

1.05

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

1.11

Deportivo Cali

1.24

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Águilas Doradas-0.27scores less

Deportivo Cali+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

68%

Águilas Doradas or Deportivo Cali

72%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

60%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

71%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

36%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

56%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.11 · 6 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.27 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportivo Cali attack 1.05 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

40%

level

28%

Deportivo Cali scores more

32%

Águilas Doradas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff