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Zulte Waregem vs Lokeren — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Zulte Waregem
Zulte Waregem
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokeren
Lokeren
Nill De Pauw 90', 87'
11/10/2018Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 15Regenboogstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Zulte Waregem44%
×Draw24%
Lokeren33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulte Waregem
1.68
Lokeren
1.42

Zulte Waregem creates 18% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 23 away

creates per match

Zulte Waregem
1.62
Lokeren
0.96

allows per match

Zulte Waregem
1.88
Lokeren
1.74

finishing

Zulte Waregem+0.00on par
Lokeren+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulte Waregem ↓

Lokeren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zulte Waregem or draw
67%
Zulte Waregem or Lokeren
76%
Draw or Lokeren
56%

Winning margin

Zulte Waregem wins by 2+
23%
Lokeren wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zulte Waregem 1+ goals
81%
Zulte Waregem 2+ goals
50%
Zulte Waregem 3+ goals
24%
Lokeren 1+ goals
76%
Lokeren 2+ goals
41%
Lokeren 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)
57%
Lokeren (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulte Waregem at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.88 · 98 matches

Lokeren away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulte Waregem attack 1.62 + Lokeren defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.68

Lokeren attack 0.96 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zulte Waregem scores more
44%
level
24%
Lokeren scores more
33%

Zulte Waregem at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zulte Waregem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Steve De Ridder
47'
Killian Overmeire
54'
Marko Miric
57'
Thomas Buffel← Urho Nissilä
63'
Omri Ben Harush← Joher Khadim Rassoul
72'
Davy de Fauw
75'
Bob Straetman← Guus Hupperts
79'
Omri Ben Harush
81'
Mikael Soisalo← Chris Bedia
86'
Bambo Diaby← Jakov Filipović
87'
Nill De Pauw
90'
Nill De Pauw
90'
Sandy Walsh
90'
Mickael Tirpan
90'
Bambo Diaby

Statistics

ZulteLokeren
Overview
4Corners7
Discipline
2Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards0

Jupiler Pro League: Zulte Waregem 2–0 Lokeren

Zulte Waregem beat Lokeren 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on November 10, 2018.

Goals: Nill De Pauw (87', 90').

The match was played at Regenboogstadion in Waregem.