Lokeren 0–3 Zulte Waregem: Result & Stats

Lokeren

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Zulte Waregem

Hamdi Harbaoui 73', 35'

Nill De Pauw 37'

1/26/2019

Jupiler Pro League · Round 23Daknamstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Lokeren37%

×Draw26%

Zulte Waregem37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokerenExpected goals in this matchZulte Waregem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.36

Lokeren

1.35

Zulte Waregem

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 101 away

0.75

creates per match

1.31

1.41

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Lokeren

0.75

Zulte Waregem

1.31

allows per match

Lokeren

1.41

Zulte Waregem

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokeren+0.00on par

Zulte Waregem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokeren ↓

Zulte Waregem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lokeren or draw

63%

Lokeren or Zulte Waregem

74%

Draw or Zulte Waregem

63%

Winning margin

Lokeren wins by 2+

17%

Zulte Waregem wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lokeren 1+ goals

74%

Lokeren 2+ goals

39%

Lokeren 3+ goals

15%

Zulte Waregem 1+ goals

74%

Zulte Waregem 2+ goals

39%

Zulte Waregem 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lokeren (draw refunded)

50%

Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokeren at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Zulte Waregem away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.95 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokeren attack 0.75 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.35

Zulte Waregem attack 1.31 + Lokeren defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lokeren scores more

37%

level

26%

Zulte Waregem scores more

37%

Lokeren at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lokeren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Hamdi Harbaoui

37'

Nill De Pauw

44'

Ibrahima Seck

46'

Jose Francisco Cevallos← Steve De Ridder

54'

Tracy Mpati

61'

Geoffrey Bia← Guus Hupperts

62'

Jakov Filipović

65'

Nill De Pauw

68'

Mehdi Terki← Bambo Diaby

73'

Hamdi Harbaoui

77'

Hamdi Harbaoui

81'

Florian Tardieu← Henrik Bjørdal

84'

Mickael Tirpan

89'

Idrissa Sylla← Hamdi Harbaoui

90'

Mikael Soisalo← Nill De Pauw

Shots

Statistics

LokerenZulte

Overview

5Total Shots6

1Corners3

11Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots6

3On Target4

2Off Target2

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

6Offsides3