Zulte Waregem 1–3 Lokeren: Result & Stats

Zulte Waregem

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Lokeren

10/1/2017

Jupiler Pro League · Round 9Regenboogstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Zulte Waregem42%

×Draw24%

Lokeren34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zulte WaregemExpected goals in this matchLokeren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.46

Zulte Waregem

1.65

Lokeren

1.46

Zulte Waregem creates 13% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 30 away

1.62

creates per match

1.03

1.89

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Zulte Waregem

1.62

Lokeren

1.03

allows per match

Zulte Waregem

1.89

Lokeren

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zulte Waregem+0.00on par

Lokeren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulte Waregem ↓

Lokeren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Zulte Waregem or draw

66%

Zulte Waregem or Lokeren

76%

Draw or Lokeren

58%

Winning margin

Zulte Waregem wins by 2+

22%

Lokeren wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zulte Waregem 1+ goals

81%

Zulte Waregem 2+ goals

49%

Zulte Waregem 3+ goals

23%

Lokeren 1+ goals

77%

Lokeren 2+ goals

43%

Lokeren 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)

55%

Lokeren (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulte Waregem at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.89 · 99 matches

Lokeren away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulte Waregem attack 1.62 + Lokeren defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lokeren attack 1.03 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zulte Waregem scores more

42%

level

24%

Lokeren scores more

34%

Zulte Waregem at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zulte Waregem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff