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Zrinski Jurjevac vs Belišće — Second NL 2022

Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Belišće
Belišće
P. Raguz 35'
S. Anocic 48'
11/18/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 14Stadion NK Čepin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac62%
×Draw21%
Belišće16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.94
Belišće
0.87

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 123% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.47
Belišće
1.07

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
0.67
Belišće
2.40

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par
Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Belišće →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw
84%
Zrinski Jurjevac or Belišće
79%
Draw or Belišće
38%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
37%
Belišće wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
86%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
58%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
30%
Belišće 1+ goals
58%
Belišće 2+ goals
22%
Belišće 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
79%
Belišće (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Belišće away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.47 + Belišće defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.94

Belišće attack 1.07 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
62%
level
21%
Belišće scores more
16%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
P. Raguz
48'
S. Anocic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zrinski Jurjevac vs Belišće

Zrinski Jurjevac and Belišće drew 1-1 in Second NL on November 18, 2022.

Goals: P. Raguz (35'), S. Anocic (48').

The match was played at Stadion NK Čepin in Čepin.