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Belišće vs Zrinski Jurjevac — Second NL 2022

Belišće
Belišće
FT
1 – 3
Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
5/27/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 29Stadion Gradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Belišće20%
×Draw25%
Zrinski Jurjevac55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belišće
0.86
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.61

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 87% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Belišće
0.93
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.53

allows per match

Belišće
1.70
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.80

finishing

Belišće+0.00on par
Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belišće ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Belišće or draw
45%
Belišće or Zrinski Jurjevac
75%
Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac
80%

Winning margin

Belišće wins by 2+
6%
Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Belišće 1+ goals
58%
Belišće 2+ goals
21%
Belišće 3+ goals
6%
Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
80%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
48%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Belišće (draw refunded)
27%
Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belišće at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belišće attack 0.93 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.53 + Belišće defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Belišće scores more
20%
level
25%
Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
55%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belišće vs Zrinski Jurjevac

Zrinski Jurjevac beat Belišće 3-1 in Second NL on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gradski in Belišće.