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Zrinski Jurjevac vs Belišće — League #217 2026

Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
FT
1 – 0
Belišće
Belišće
4/10/2021League #217League #217 · East - 22Bara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac45%
×Draw28%
Belišće27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.33
Belišće
0.97

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 37% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.67
Belišće
0.60

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.33
Belišće
1.00

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par
Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Belišće →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw
73%
Zrinski Jurjevac or Belišće
72%
Draw or Belišće
55%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
21%
Belišće wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
74%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
38%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
15%
Belišće 1+ goals
62%
Belišće 2+ goals
25%
Belišće 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
62%
Belišće (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Belišće away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.67 + Belišće defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Belišće attack 0.60 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
45%
level
28%
Belišće scores more
27%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zrinski Jurjevac vs Belišće

Zrinski Jurjevac beat Belišće 1-0 in League #217 on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Bara Stadion in Jurjevac.