Zorya Luhansk 2–0 CSKA Sofia: Result & Stats

Zorya Luhansk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CSKA Sofia

A. Sayyadmanesh 90+5'

S. Zahedi 87'

11/4/2021

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 4Slavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zorya Luhansk59%

×Draw24%

CSKA Sofia17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zorya LuhanskExpected goals in this matchCSKA Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.79

Zorya Luhansk

1.71

CSKA Sofia

0.79

Zorya Luhansk creates 116% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.43

creates per match

0.44

1.14

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.43

CSKA Sofia

0.44

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.14

CSKA Sofia

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

CSKA Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw

83%

Zorya Luhansk or CSKA Sofia

76%

Draw or CSKA Sofia

41%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

33%

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

82%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

51%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

24%

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals

55%

CSKA Sofia 2+ goals

19%

CSKA Sofia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

78%

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.43 + CSKA Sofia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

CSKA Sofia attack 0.44 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more

59%

level

24%

CSKA Sofia scores more

17%

Zorya Luhansk at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Zahedi

Zorya Luhansk · F

8.2

Match Events

56'

Vitali Vernydub

70'

Ihor Snurnitsyn

71'

Juninho← I. Snurnitsyn

72'

Y. Bai← Y. Wildschut

76'

Shahab Zahedi

79'

Cristian← M. Lunev

83'

A. Ahmedov← J. Caicedo

87'

S. Zahedi

89'

K. Krastev← A. Youga

90'

D. Alefirenko← S. Buletsa

90+5'

A. Sayyadmanesh↳ S. Zahedi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZoryaCSKA

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots9

4Corners4

15Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots9

3On Target1

2Off Target7

2Blocked1

5Inside Box5

2Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

327Total Passes359

210Accurate Passes260

64%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls11

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides7