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CSKA Sofia vs Zorya Luhansk — UEFA Europa League 2026

CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
8/8/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

CSKA Sofia52%
×Draw23%
Zorya Luhansk24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia
1.77
Zorya Luhansk
1.13

CSKA Sofia creates 57% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia
1.67
Zorya Luhansk
1.25

allows per match

CSKA Sofia
1.00
Zorya Luhansk
1.88

finishing

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia or draw
76%
CSKA Sofia or Zorya Luhansk
77%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
48%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
29%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
83%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
53%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
26%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
68%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
31%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
68%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia attack 1.67 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.77

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.25 + CSKA Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CSKA Sofia scores more
52%
level
23%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
24%

CSKA Sofia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: CSKA Sofia 1–1 Zorya Luhansk

CSKA Sofia and Zorya Luhansk drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa League on August 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.