CSKA Sofia 0–1 Zorya Luhansk: Result & Stats

CSKA Sofia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zorya Luhansk

A. Sayyadmanesh 64'

10/21/2021

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 3Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

CSKA Sofia58%

×Draw23%

Zorya Luhansk19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA SofiaExpected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.93

CSKA Sofia

1.83

Zorya Luhansk

0.93

CSKA Sofia creates 97% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.22

creates per match

0.86

1.00

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

CSKA Sofia

1.22

Zorya Luhansk

0.86

allows per match

CSKA Sofia

1.00

Zorya Luhansk

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia ↓

Zorya Luhansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia or draw

81%

CSKA Sofia or Zorya Luhansk

77%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk

42%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+

34%

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals

84%

CSKA Sofia 2+ goals

54%

CSKA Sofia 3+ goals

28%

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

61%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

24%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)

76%

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia attack 1.22 + Zorya Luhansk defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.83

Zorya Luhansk attack 0.86 + CSKA Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CSKA Sofia scores more

58%

level

23%

Zorya Luhansk scores more

19%

CSKA Sofia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

G. Carey

CSKA Sofia · F

7.7

Match Events

28'

Dmytro Khomchenovskyi

46'

Jurgen Matheij

57'

F. Varela← G. Carey

64'

A. Sayyadmanesh↳ I. Snurnitsyn

69'

Yanic Wildschut

73'

Y. Bai← Y. Wildschut

73'

T. Vion← Geferson

77'

83'

84'

85'

87'

89'

90+3'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CSKAZorya

Overview

63%Possession37%

15Total Shots9

10Corners3

15Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots9

4On Target3

7Off Target6

4Blocked0

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

407Total Passes253

318Accurate Passes146

78%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls15

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0