Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Znicz Pruszków vs Stal Mielec — I Liga 2018

Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
FT
4 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
7/25/2025I LigaI Liga · Round 2Stadion MZOS Znicz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Znicz Pruszków33%
×Draw25%
Stal Mielec42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Pruszków
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.54

Stal Mielec creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.37
Stal Mielec
1.47

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.61
Stal Mielec
1.29

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par
Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Stal Mielec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw
58%
Znicz Pruszków or Stal Mielec
75%
Draw or Stal Mielec
67%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
14%
Stal Mielec wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
74%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
38%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
15%
Stal Mielec 1+ goals
79%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
45%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
44%
Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.37 + Stal Mielec defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Stal Mielec attack 1.47 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more
33%
level
25%
Stal Mielec scores more
42%

Stal Mielec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znicz Pruszków vs Stal Mielec

Stal Mielec beat Znicz Pruszków 5-4 in I Liga on July 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion MZOS Znicz.