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Stal Mielec vs Znicz Pruszków — I Liga 2018

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
12/7/2025I LigaI Liga · Round 19Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stal Mielec49%
×Draw25%
Znicz Pruszków26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.61
Znicz Pruszków
1.09

Stal Mielec creates 48% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.80
Znicz Pruszków
1.10

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.08
Znicz Pruszków
1.43

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Znicz Pruszków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
74%
Stal Mielec or Znicz Pruszków
75%
Draw or Znicz Pruszków
51%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
26%
Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
80%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
48%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
22%
Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
66%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
30%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
66%
Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.80 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.10 + Stal Mielec defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
49%
level
25%
Znicz Pruszków scores more
26%

Stal Mielec at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Mielec vs Znicz Pruszków

Znicz Pruszków beat Stal Mielec 2-1 in I Liga on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu in Mielec.