Stal Mielec 0–1 Znicz Pruszków: Result & Stats

Stal Mielec

FT

0 – 1

Znicz Pruszków

1/17/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Boisko MOSIR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Stal Mielec52%

×Draw23%

Znicz Pruszków25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal MielecExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.17

Stal Mielec

1.79

Znicz Pruszków

1.17

Stal Mielec creates 53% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

1.82

creates per match

0.88

1.45

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Stal Mielec

1.82

Znicz Pruszków

0.88

allows per match

Stal Mielec

1.45

Znicz Pruszków

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw

75%

Stal Mielec or Znicz Pruszków

77%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

48%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

29%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

83%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

53%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

26%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

69%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

33%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

68%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.82 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.79

Znicz Pruszków attack 0.88 + Stal Mielec defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stal Mielec scores more

52%

level

23%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

25%

Stal Mielec at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff