Znicz Pruszków 2–1 Resovia Rzeszów: Result & Stats

Znicz Pruszków

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Resovia Rzeszów

12/1/2019

II Liga - East · Round 20Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Znicz Pruszków36%

×Draw27%

Resovia Rzeszów37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znicz PruszkówExpected goals in this matchResovia Rzeszów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.28

Znicz Pruszków

1.25

Resovia Rzeszów

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 52 away

1.14

creates per match

1.27

1.29

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.14

Resovia Rzeszów

1.27

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.29

Resovia Rzeszów

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Resovia Rzeszów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw

63%

Znicz Pruszków or Resovia Rzeszów

73%

Draw or Resovia Rzeszów

64%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

16%

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

71%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

36%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

13%

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

72%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

37%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

49%

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 69 matches

Resovia Rzeszów away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.14 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.27 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more

36%

level

27%

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

37%

Resovia Rzeszów at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff