Resovia Rzeszów 1–2 Znicz Pruszków: Result & Stats

Resovia Rzeszów

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Znicz Pruszków

12/9/2023

I Liga · Round 18Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów38%

×Draw28%

Znicz Pruszków34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Resovia RzeszówExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.14

Resovia Rzeszów

1.23

Znicz Pruszków

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

1.03

creates per match

1.10

1.18

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.03

Znicz Pruszków

1.10

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.18

Znicz Pruszków

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw

66%

Resovia Rzeszów or Znicz Pruszków

72%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

62%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

17%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

71%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

35%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

13%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

68%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

32%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

53%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.03 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.10 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

38%

level

28%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

34%

Resovia Rzeszów at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff