Resovia Rzeszów 3–0 Znicz Pruszków: Result & Stats

Resovia Rzeszów

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Znicz Pruszków

8/10/2019

II Liga - East · Round 3Stadion Resovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów43%

×Draw25%

Znicz Pruszków31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Resovia RzeszówExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.24

Resovia Rzeszów

1.50

Znicz Pruszków

1.24

Resovia Rzeszów creates 21% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

1.55

creates per match

1.36

1.12

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.55

Znicz Pruszków

1.36

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.12

Znicz Pruszków

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw

69%

Resovia Rzeszów or Znicz Pruszków

75%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

57%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

21%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

78%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

44%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

19%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

71%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

35%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

58%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.55 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.36 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

43%

level

25%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

31%

Resovia Rzeszów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff