Znicz Pruszków 1–2 Miedz Legnica: Result & Stats

Znicz Pruszków

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Miedz Legnica

R. Majewski 71'

D. Stanclik 61'

K. Antonik 13'

4/12/2026

I Liga · Round 28Stadion MZOS Znicz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Znicz Pruszków34%

×Draw26%

Miedz Legnica41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znicz PruszkówExpected goals in this matchMiedz Legnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.42

Znicz Pruszków

1.27

Miedz Legnica

1.42

Miedz Legnica creates 12% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 103 away

1.37

creates per match

1.22

1.61

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.37

Miedz Legnica

1.22

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.61

Miedz Legnica

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Miedz Legnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw

59%

Znicz Pruszków or Miedz Legnica

74%

Draw or Miedz Legnica

66%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

15%

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

72%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

36%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

14%

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

76%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

41%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

45%

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.37 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Miedz Legnica attack 1.22 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more

34%

level

26%

Miedz Legnica scores more

41%

Miedz Legnica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

13'

39'

40'

46'

B. Ciepiela← M. Pawlik

61'

D. Stanclik

65'

A. Kazimierczak← T. Proczek

65'

A. Yuzvak← P. Moskwik

71'

R. Majewski↳ B. Ciepiela

72'

Z. Petrovic← E. Rakip

72'

M. Mansfeld← A. Cordoba

76'

A. Kazimierczak

80'

V. Okhronchuk

80'

V. Okhronchuk

83'

K. Drygas← P. Stepinski

83'

I. Maliszewski← G. Kuchko

88'

B. Ciepiela

89'

A. Bartoszewicz← D. Bak

90+6'

O. Koprowski

90+3'

L. Czyborra← K. Antonik

Znicz

Miedz

72

Lucic

78

Polak

59

▼

Stepinski

15

Jovicic

3

Grudzinsk

11

▼

Kuchko

18

▼

Cordoba

23

A

▼

Rakip

8

Serafin

98

⚽

▼

Antonik

21

⚽

Stanclik

12

Misztal

22

Tabara

6

▼

Pawlik

5

Jach

99

Koprowski

11

▼

Moskwik

8

▼

Proczek

14

Okhronchu

20

Borecki

9

⚽

Majewski

29

▼

Bak

Manager: Peter Struhar

46'▲B. Ciepiela←▼M. Pawlik

65'▲A. Kazimierczak←▼T. Proczek

65'▲A. Yuzvak←▼P. Moskwik

89'▲A. Bartoszewicz←▼D. Bak

Znicz Pruszków substitutes

23Napieraj3Bartoszewicz10Ciepiela17Kazimierczak21Mak25Konieczny30Yuzvak35Redlinski77Skladowski

Manager: Janusz Niedzwiedz

72'▲Z. Petrovic←▼E. Rakip

72'▲M. Mansfeld←▼A. Cordoba

83'▲K. Drygas←▼P. Stepinski

83'▲I. Maliszewski←▼G. Kuchko

90+3'▲L. Czyborra←▼K. Antonik

Miedz Legnica substitutes

10Mioc14Drygas17Maliszewski25Czyborra80Petrovic95Mansfeld44Wrabel