Znicz Pruszków 2–1 Miedz Legnica: Result & Stats

Znicz Pruszków

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Miedz Legnica

K. Tabara 53'

M. Borecki 34' (pen)

K. Antonik 37'

3/8/2025

I Liga · Round 23Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Znicz Pruszków34%

×Draw26%

Miedz Legnica41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znicz PruszkówExpected goals in this matchMiedz Legnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.42

Znicz Pruszków

1.27

Miedz Legnica

1.42

Miedz Legnica creates 12% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 103 away

1.37

creates per match

1.22

1.61

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.37

Miedz Legnica

1.22

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.61

Miedz Legnica

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Miedz Legnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw

59%

Znicz Pruszków or Miedz Legnica

74%

Draw or Miedz Legnica

66%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

15%

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

72%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

36%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

14%

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

76%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

41%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

45%

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.37 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Miedz Legnica attack 1.22 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more

34%

level

26%

Miedz Legnica scores more

41%

Miedz Legnica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

P. Moskwik

34'

M. BoreckiPenalty

37'

K. Antonik

53'

K. Tabara

59'

T. Walczak← G. Engvall

59'

W. Hajda← I. Kaczmarski

66'

M. Bochnak← J. Podgórski

73'

B. Ciepiela← R. Majewski

73'

K. Drygas← J. Letniowski

80'

K. Imai← K. Tabara

80'

V. Okhronchuk← M. Borecki

86'

A. Kovacevic

89'

V. Okhronchuk

90+5'

P. Romanowski← W. Nowak

Znicz

Miedz

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Tabara

Manager: G. Szoka

73'▲B. Ciepiela←▼R. Majewski

80'▲K. Imai←▼K. Tabara

80'▲V. Okhronchuk←▼M. Borecki

90+5'▲P. Romanowski←▼W. Nowak

Znicz Pruszków substitutes

CiepielaImaiOkhronchukRomanowskiNapierajJasińskiKarolProczekKieszek

Manager: I. Mamrot

59'▲T. Walczak←▼G. Engvall

59'▲W. Hajda←▼I. Kaczmarski

66'▲M. Bochnak←▼J. Podgórski

73'▲K. Drygas←▼J. Letniowski

Miedz Legnica substitutes

WalczakHajdaBochnakDrygasDrinaDialloMichalikNowakowskiAbramowicz

I Liga: Znicz Pruszków 2–1 Miedz Legnica

Znicz Pruszków beat Miedz Legnica 2-1 in I Liga on March 8, 2025.

Goals: M. Borecki (34' pen), K. Antonik (37'), K. Tabara (53').

The match was played at Stadion Znicza in Pruszków.

Znicz Pruszków vs Miedz Legnica — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Znicz Pruszków 2–1 Miedz Legnica