Miedz Legnica 1–2 Znicz Pruszków: Result & Stats

Miedz Legnica

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Znicz Pruszków

M. Mansfeld 90'

P. Moskwik 54'

S. Nagamatsu 48'

4/28/2024

I Liga · Round 30Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Miedz Legnica49%

×Draw25%

Znicz Pruszków27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedz LegnicaExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.12

Miedz Legnica

1.61

Znicz Pruszków

1.12

Miedz Legnica creates 44% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 51 away

1.80

creates per match

1.10

1.14

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Miedz Legnica

1.80

Znicz Pruszków

1.10

allows per match

Miedz Legnica

1.14

Znicz Pruszków

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw

73%

Miedz Legnica or Znicz Pruszków

75%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

51%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

25%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

80%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

48%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

22%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

67%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

31%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

65%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 100 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.80 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.10 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more

49%

level

25%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

27%

Miedz Legnica at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

K. Drzazga← Iban Salvador

48'

S. Nagamatsu

53'

Y. Tkachuk

54'

P. Moskwik

55'

M. Mansfeld← E. Agbor

55'

S. Zalewski← W. Bogacz

67'

M. Mansfeld

73'

N. Mijuskovic

77'

K. DrzazgaGoal Disallowed - offside

84'

J. Leonczyk← R. Hoogenhout

84'

K. Józefiak← K. Antonik

84'

J. Wójcicki← R. Majewski

88'

F. Składowski← K. Tabara

90'

M. Mansfeld

Miedz

Znicz

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Mamrot

41'▲K. Drzazga←▼Iban Salvador

55'▲M. Mansfeld←▼E. Agbor

55'▲S. Zalewski←▼W. Bogacz

84'▲J. Leonczyk←▼R. Hoogenhout

84'▲K. Józefiak←▼K. Antonik

Miedz Legnica substitutes

DrzazgaMansfeldZalewskiLeonczykJózefiakAbramowiczPierzak

Manager: M. Misiura

84'▲J. Wójcicki←▼R. Majewski

88'▲F. Składowski←▼K. Tabara

Znicz Pruszków substitutes

WójcickiSkładowskiBrysiakImaiMleczkoProczekNowak