Znicz Pruszków 4–0 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Znicz Pruszków

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

A. Kazimierczak 90'

D. Stanclik 71'

Ł. Wiech 66'

W. Nowak 20'

8/25/2024

I Liga · Round 7Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Znicz Pruszków48%

×Draw24%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znicz PruszkówExpected goals in this matchKotwica Kołobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.27

Znicz Pruszków

1.72

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.27

Znicz Pruszków creates 35% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.37

creates per match

0.94

1.61

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.37

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.94

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.61

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw

72%

Znicz Pruszków or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

76%

Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

52%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

26%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

82%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

51%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

25%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

72%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

36%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

63%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.37 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.72

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 0.94 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more

48%

level

24%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

28%

Znicz Pruszków at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Znicz Pruszków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

W. Nowak

46'

A. Biegański← L. Kreković

60'

K. Imai← B. Ciepiela

66'

Ł. Wiech

71'

D. Stanclik

73'

M. Kurowski← M. Bykowski

77'

T. Proczek← D. Sokół

83'

K. Kort← C. Polak

83'

P. Witasik← Ł. Kosakiewicz

83'

V. Kostevych← Z. Petrović

85'

A. Kazimierczak← R. Majewski

85'

M. Karol← D. Stanclik

86'

Jonathan Junior

90'

A. Kazimierczak

Znicz

Kotwica

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Stanclik

Manager: G. Szoka

60'▲K. Imai←▼B. Ciepiela

77'▲T. Proczek←▼D. Sokół

85'▲A. Kazimierczak←▼R. Majewski

85'▲M. Karol←▼D. Stanclik

Znicz Pruszków substitutes

ImaiProczekKazimierczakKarolKlebaniukYukhymovychKendziaFlisiukTabara

Manager: R. Tarasiewicz

46'▲A. Biegański←▼L. Kreković

73'▲M. Kurowski←▼M. Bykowski

83'▲K. Kort←▼C. Polak

83'▲P. Witasik←▼Ł. Kosakiewicz

83'▲V. Kostevych←▼Z. Petrović

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

BiegańskiKurowskiKortWitasikKostevychTrojnarskiKrzepiszZiętekCywiński