Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2–1 Znicz Pruszków

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Znicz Pruszków

P. Witasik 49'

G. Goncerz 9'

S. Nagamatsu 32'

7/30/2022

II Liga - East · Round 3Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg45%

×Draw26%

Znicz Pruszków29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotwica KołobrzegExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.08

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.43

Znicz Pruszków

1.08

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

1.41

creates per match

1.36

0.79

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.41

Znicz Pruszków

1.36

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.79

Znicz Pruszków

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw

71%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Znicz Pruszków

74%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

55%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

22%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

76%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

42%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

17%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

66%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

29%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

61%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.41 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.43

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.36 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

45%

level

26%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

29%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

9'

11'

17'

32'

49'

67'

T. Kaczmarek← P. Łysiak

67'

K. Bartoś← K. Kort

67'

M. Możdżeń← P. Skórecki

71'

K. Pomorski

75'

D. Kostkowski

78'

J. Bojas← M. Cywiński

78'

D. Chromiński← G. Goncerz

78'

P. Czarnowski← T. Proczek

78'

K. Wingralek← Ł. Bogusławski

81'

K. Niewiadomski← P. Moskwik

90'

D. Sadzawicki← M. Kozajda

Kotwica

Znicz

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Goncerz

Manager: M. Płuska

67'▲T. Kaczmarek←▼P. Łysiak

67'▲K. Bartoś←▼K. Kort

78'▲J. Bojas←▼M. Cywiński

78'▲D. Chromiński←▼G. Goncerz

90'▲D. Sadzawicki←▼M. Kozajda

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

KaczmarekBartośBojasChromińskiSadzawicki

Manager: M. Misiura

67'▲M. Możdżeń←▼P. Skórecki

78'▲P. Czarnowski←▼T. Proczek

78'▲K. Wingralek←▼Ł. Bogusławski

81'▲K. Niewiadomski←▼P. Moskwik

Znicz Pruszków substitutes

MożdżeńCzarnowskiWingralekNiewiadomski