Znicz Pruszków 3–1 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Znicz Pruszków

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

M. Firlej 65'

J. Wójcicki 56'

D. Yukhymovych 3'

M. Cywiński 50'

2/25/2023

II Liga - East · Round 20Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Znicz Pruszków34%

×Draw25%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znicz PruszkówExpected goals in this matchKotwica Kołobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.49

Znicz Pruszków

1.32

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.49

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 13% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 34 away

1.14

creates per match

1.71

1.27

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.14

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.71

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.27

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw

59%

Znicz Pruszków or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

75%

Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

66%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

15%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

73%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

38%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

15%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

77%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

44%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

45%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.14 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.71 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more

34%

level

25%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

41%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

41'

41'

50'

56'

64'

65'

66'

T. Kaczmarek← M. Cywiński

66'

P. Łysiak← A. Bielka

77'

S. Nagamatsu← J. Wójcicki

78'

K. Kort← J. Nojszewski

83'

J. Bojas← A. Skrzyniak

90+3'

S. Jannasz

90+1'

S. Jannasz← M. Firlej

90+1'

M. Cegiełka← Y. Tkachuk

Znicz

Kotwica

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Firlej

Barnowski

Manager: M. Misiura

64'▲T. Proczek←▼W. Nowak

77'▲S. Nagamatsu←▼J. Wójcicki

90+1'▲S. Jannasz←▼M. Firlej

90+1'▲M. Cegiełka←▼Y. Tkachuk

Znicz Pruszków substitutes

ProczekNagamatsuJannaszCegiełka

Manager: M. Płuska

66'▲T. Kaczmarek←▼M. Cywiński

66'▲P. Łysiak←▼A. Bielka

78'▲K. Kort←▼J. Nojszewski

83'▲J. Bojas←▼A. Skrzyniak

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

KaczmarekŁysiakKortBojas