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Znicz Pruszków vs GKS Katowice — II Liga - East 2019

Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
4/8/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 26Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Znicz Pruszków31%
×Draw26%
GKS Katowice42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Pruszków
1.17
GKS Katowice
1.40

GKS Katowice creates 20% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.14
GKS Katowice
1.51

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.29
GKS Katowice
1.20

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par
GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

GKS Katowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw
58%
Znicz Pruszków or GKS Katowice
74%
Draw or GKS Katowice
69%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
13%
GKS Katowice wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
69%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
33%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
11%
GKS Katowice 1+ goals
75%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
41%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
43%
GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 69 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.14 + GKS Katowice defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

GKS Katowice attack 1.51 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more
31%
level
26%
GKS Katowice scores more
42%

GKS Katowice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Znicz Pruszków 1–0 GKS Katowice

Znicz Pruszków beat GKS Katowice 1-0 in II Liga - East on April 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Znicza in Pruszków.