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GKS Katowice vs Znicz Pruszków — I Liga 2018

GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
3/2/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 22Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

GKS Katowice44%
×Draw26%
Znicz Pruszków30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice
1.46
Znicz Pruszków
1.16

GKS Katowice creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice
1.49
Znicz Pruszków
1.10

allows per match

GKS Katowice
1.22
Znicz Pruszków
1.43

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par
Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Znicz Pruszków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw
70%
GKS Katowice or Znicz Pruszków
74%
Draw or Znicz Pruszków
56%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+
21%
Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals
77%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
43%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
18%
Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
69%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
32%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
59%
Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.49 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.10 + GKS Katowice defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

GKS Katowice scores more
44%
level
26%
Znicz Pruszków scores more
30%

GKS Katowice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GKS Katowice vs Znicz Pruszków

GKS Katowice beat Znicz Pruszków 3-1 in I Liga on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.