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GKS Katowice vs Znicz Pruszków — II Liga - East 2019

GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
10/3/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 7Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

GKS Katowice48%
×Draw24%
Znicz Pruszków28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice
1.71
Znicz Pruszków
1.25

GKS Katowice creates 37% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 69 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice
1.97
Znicz Pruszków
1.36

allows per match

GKS Katowice
1.14
Znicz Pruszków
1.45

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par
Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Znicz Pruszków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw
72%
GKS Katowice or Znicz Pruszków
76%
Draw or Znicz Pruszków
52%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+
26%
Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals
82%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
51%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
24%
Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
71%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
36%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
63%
Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.97 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.71

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.36 + GKS Katowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

GKS Katowice scores more
48%
level
24%
Znicz Pruszków scores more
28%

GKS Katowice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: GKS Katowice 1–1 Znicz Pruszków

GKS Katowice and Znicz Pruszków drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.